Azerbaijan State of the Future Index 2011

25th November, 2011 there was a launch of the “Azerbaijan State of the Future Index 2011” and “State of the Future 2011”  at the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan Future Studies Society, Millennium Project initiated and conducted a study for computing the first Azerbaijan State of the Future Index. The AZ-SOFI is an assessment of the 10-year outlook of the Future (2011-2020), based on 20 years of historical data and forecasts of 20 variables and 24 potential developments that could have a significant impact on the future of Azerbaijan. The variables and developments were initially selected by a Core Expert Group in Azerbaijan and then assessed by a larger group of over 100 experts through an online questionnaire using a Real-Time Delphi conducted in October 2011.The AZ-SOFI shows the directions and intensity of change in Azerbaijan. It also provides a mechanism for studying the relationships among the variables and the developments analyzed. Therefore, it is an additional tool that could help Azerbaijan policymakers explore development questions at a national level and contribute to the strategic planning process for the future of Azerbaijan. Computing the national SOFI on a yearly (or any periodical) base, could help assess progress over that period, as well as identify and focus attention on necessary future developments and actions. This report on the Azerbaijan State of the Future Index 2011 reveals and discusses important issues for the future of Azerbaijan. It can help policy analysts prepare for what is important to the nation as well as to the world as Azerbaijan takes its seat on the UN Security Council.

Director of the Millennium Project Jerome Glenn spoke at the round table, attended by the core expert group that selected the AZ-SOFI variables and the Delphi Panel and representatives of Azerbaijan Future Studies Society, experts of the Center for Strategic Studies, Minister of Communication and Information Technologies and Azerbaijan National Academy of Science. Mr. Glenn provided extensive information about the results of the study, while stressing its importance.

Chairwoman of Azerbaijan Future Studies Society Reyhan Huseynova said that “Azerbaijan State of the Future Index” will contribute to the strategic planning process for the future of Azerbaijan.

Chief of the political analysis and forecasting sector of the Presidential Administration Farhad Mammadov said every country faces difficulties in forming its future, while stressing that existing problems and stereotypes hindered the formation of new views. “The processes in our country make it possible to say that Azerbaijan follows a positive direction in its development”, said F. Mammadov and added that the priority of the state is to consider the opinions of public and scientific research centers in ensuring the sustainable development of the state. Outlining Karabakh conflict as the main hindrance to Azerbaijan’s development, the chief of the sector added that the conflict settlement will be a strong stimulus to further development of the country.



 AZ-SOFI 2011 pdf